Lottery and Scratch-Off Odds
©2012
Playing the lottery is on the rise with worldwide lottery profits on an upswing. Participants know the odds are against them, but the lure of long-term financial independence is quite compelling. The 1 in 756 million odds of winning the Mega Millions $656 million lottery didn't prevent long lines from queuing at lotto stores. Is there a way to improve these dismal odds? Whether you purchase one ticket or 1,000 tickets, the odds remain the same. The answer it to switch to a different lottery game. Players can have a tendency to become lottery snobs who will only play for the massive payouts. The game with the best odds are the scratch-offs. Payouts for the top prizes can be worth several million dollars. Scratch-off odds can be as low as 1 in every 2.5 ticket purchased.
Don't get out your wallet yet. While the winning odds accurately reflect state reporting standards, they are grossly misleading. Make no mistake, the house has the clear advantage. State sponsored scratch-off lotteries have a virtually guaranteed percentage of profit for the state coffers. Then how is it that some people win large payouts multiple times? Did they decipher the algorithm which beats the system?
Unfortunately, the secret decoder ring does not exist. There's three powerhouses that contract end-to-end lottery solutions to states. These companies are expert at distributing winning tickets. While there can be statistical anomalies in the locations where large money tickets are distributed, the percentage distribution of winning tickets remains true to the published percentage throughout the life of the game. In other words, a game that is 60% complete will have 60% of the winning tickets distributed and 40% remaining in the warehouse. In the GeekPhilosopher's state Scratch-Off charts, it can appear that the high dollar payouts are distributed sporatically. This is because the small number of prizes exagerates the percentages.
The common thread between multi-winners is that they play the lottery often. They continue to spend a percentage of their winnings in additional lotteries. They gamble much more money than the average person can afford. Still, this is a strategy that can be used by reinvesting your winnings into more scratch-offs. It's important to calculate which scratch-off game truly has the best odds. These will always be the games with the smaller payouts. Instead of gambling for the huge pot that you're statistically unlikely to win, gamble for the smaller pot that's more attainable. Even the smaller pot cannot be won without an element of luck, but you will have greatly increased your chances.
Evaluate the scratch-off games' prizes to determine what the actual odds are. This Texas scratch-off game has published odds of 1 in 4.45. This appears to be decent odds until you realize that the $1 winners are 10% of the total winners. Spending $1 and getting $1 doesn't make you a winner - that's breaking even. Calculate the odds without the breakeven "prize". In this case, removing the $1 winners lowers the odds to 1 in 8.47.
| Prize Amount |
# in
Game |
# Prizes
Claimed |
|
$1,000
|
150
|
144
|
|
$500
|
402
|
384
|
|
$100
|
1,469
|
1,379
|
|
$50
|
4,792
|
4,544
|
|
$40
|
9,388
|
8,925
|
|
$20
|
81,181
|
76,846
|
|
$10
|
121,886
|
113,868
|
|
$5
|
162,629
|
149,722
|
|
$4
|
162,610
|
149,065
|
|
$2
|
893,764
|
803,949
|
|
$1
|
1,299,520
|
1,137,482
|
Each GeekPhilosopher Scratch-Off listing details the "Adjusted Odds".
| # of tickets: |
2,398,000 |
| Ticket price: |
$1 |
| Published Odds: |
1 in 4.66 |
| Adjusted Odds*: |
1 in 10.56 |
| Top Prize Odds: |
1 in 239,800 |
*Lottery scratch-off odds recalculated without the $1 breakeven prize
Analyze the "Adjusted Odds" to identify the games that truly have the best odds.
|